What will it take to move mindshare to Android?

People often ask me when more developers and applications will shift to Android rather than iOS; the argument is based on the fact that Android devices are selling at a faster rate and logically the market must in turn start to tilt Google’s way. That argument makes sense, but the problem with that is that developers still choose to develop for iOS first. Not that more apps are released on iOS, or that more features are on one platform or the other… but developers elect to develop their ideas on iOS before going elsewhere.

This matters; it’s what dented Sony during the last console war and brought Microsoft into a game that they had little experience in. They made it attractive for developers to produce games for them first, and port to their competitors. As a result the games were always best for their platform, while others got shoddy replicas that didn’t take advantage of the unique features inherent to their platforms. This mechanic not only helped Microsoft win, it also took powers away from Sony; no matter how cool the features they created were being second in line meant that those features were rarely utilized.

Today Samsung, HTC and others struggle to find features that move the needle and bring developers to Android first. Those features feel like they are becoming more and more desperate… much like the previous console war they just aren’t moving the needle alone. In Sony’s case they got back into the battle with a series of high-quality titles that were exclusive to the platform. Through the efforts of their own studio and companies like Sucker Punch, Naughty Dog and Media Molecule they brought a level of excitement and interest back to their system.

It’s unlikely the same thing can happen in mobile; there are so many apps and the relatively open system means it’s harder for AAA franchise titles to swoop in and save the day. Microsoft hasn’t quite figured this out, as they attempt to buy their way into mobile market share by offering developers to port to their platform. In order for a platform to gain ground developers have to believe that it’s worth their time and money to go there first.

Part of it is about money; Apple is the platform you want to be on if you want to monetize your investment. Despite their own efforts to bring their ad inventory to the table, Android isn’t yet seen as a platform that will yield a financial return. Another part of it is the ecosystem itself; mobile developers are tired of fragmentation and Android is increasingly more fragmented. Signing up to develop for Android means diving into skewed versions of the platform and when that’s combined with the earlier lack of financial motivation it means a lot more trouble for a lot less return.

Many predict that the tipping point will come in the next year, and that’s one reason why Apple made such a dramatic change to their core operating system with iOS7. But the tipping point isn’t going to be the result of Samsung releasing “the iPhone killer” (CNN has already crowned the last two Galaxy phones as ‘iPhone killers’ and little has changed in the application space) or a new and updated Google Play App Store. Until developers start choosing to start on Android (or Windows, or whatever) first, it’s a lot of investment and effort to be second. Predications otherwise feel like the same kind of echo chamber that’s bringing us Google Glasses; loved by the tech community but misunderstood by the world at large.

The tech community and “industry experts” cannot change the market, it’s going to take a different kind of spark. It’s going to take people starting somewhere other than iOS. Until they do, it’s not going to change.